The Making and Breaking of History

According to B. Tuchman, “History is the unfolding of miscalculation.” In other words, history usually develops in a manner quite contrary to people’s expectations. While events are unfolding, observers may pass judgement on the course they are taking; but the course of history defies all prediction, and in the end things turn out quite differently from what people had initially expected.

Consider an example from Islamic history in the year 6 AH when the Treaty of Hudaybiyah was signed between the Prophet Muhammad and the Quraysh of Makkah. At that time the Quraysh were one in thinking that the Muslims had signed their own writ of destruction, for they accepted peace on terms which were clearly favourable to the Quraysh. Yet, it subsequently transpired that this apparent defeat contained the seeds of a great victory for the Muslims.

The same thing has happened time and again throughout history. In 1945, when the atom bombs were dropped on the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan, it seemed to the Americans as if Japan would lie in ruins for several decades to come. Yet this was not to be: forty years after the event, Japan stood at the pinnacle of her economic strength and continues to be one of the leading industrial powers in the world.

Those who have been written off as spent forces can take solace from this fact of history. Experience shows that sparks erupt from volcanoes that have lain inactive for years. In this world, the very annihilation and destruction of something means that it is ready to arise and take its place as a new power on earth; a force which is spent turns into a living force.

One should never lose hope because of the dismal course events appear to be taking. When the pages of history turn, events may turn out to have been leading in a direction quite contrary to all our expectations.